Has Egypt's Arab Spring Returned Back to its Source?

The news today marks a return to an Egyptian nation of the past. Nearly three years ago President Mubarak was removed and many believed the grip of military on the government to be in decline. As General Abdel Fatah al-Sisi announces his predictable candidacy in the upcoming elections has Egypt really changed or has it returned to its pre-revolution roots?

This article will argue that the Egyptians have grown tired of the revolution and are willing to sacrifice some liberties for stability. Yet, how they view their relationship to the state has altered, they see themselves as citizens rather than subjects. General al-Sisi must tread carefully if he is to retain power in this turbulent state.

In political theory protracted violence often leads citizens to demand a strong leader to resolve conflict and restore a sense of purpose to the state.  Evidently they want reform but continuous violence disrupts their economy and when foreign investment declines and businesses suffer many protesters begin to be concerned about how they will eat rather than political change. The 98% who voted yes for the new constitution in Egypt substantiates this mentality.

General al-Sisi has become a figurehead for stability in Egypt

The Muslim Brotherhood still detest the current situation but due to their lack of political prerogative they have resorted to violence and protest to secure their demands. Regretfully, without a political manner of expressing their opinions against a strong militarised state this is largely ineffective.

On ‘The World Tonight’ Ritula Shah asks Mona Makram Ebeid, lecturer at the American University in Cairo, what al-Sisi will be like as a leader and highlights his previous role as the former intelligence chief for President Mubarak.

She states that he ‘is the people’s choice’ and this is not widely debated. But, Tarek Radwan, Associate Director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, argues the military background of al-Sisi means he will look at issues from this relatively strong and repressive perspective. Ebeid contends that al-Sisi is more savvy then this and he will have to be. The Egyptians are well aware of their rights.

Research concerning coups suggests that once a coup occurs it then justifies subsequent coups. One regime has fallen to the people, surely another can?  If al-Sisi becomes President he will have to contend between the demands of the military and the people. If the military perceive him as becoming a weak leader they will remove him and if the people grow tired of his rule they will protest. What complicates the matter is that it is the military that breed corruption in Egypt as they dominate the government posts. Real democracy is impossible in this climate of officership.

(Steven Cook’s book entitled ‘Ruling But Not Governing: The Military and Political Development in Egypt, Algeria and Turkey’ covers military rule in greater detail)

The Egyptian Army has a stake in political decisions and is far from apolitical.

True democracy looks unlikely for the Egyptian people but the protests have warned politicians that the people are able to act. Whether al-Sisi's election will lead to tighter repression or a gradual and controlled opening up of the state is uncertain in this present climate but he has a difficult task ahead.