5 Broken Cameras: The Palestinian Stuggle

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has always been a complicated affair and highlights the impact of borders. In most regions of the world borders have been set since colonial times though conflict over their geographical position is common. Chechnya, Kashmir and the Kurdish regions are prime examples.

‘5 Broken Cameras’ tells the story of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the village of Bil’in and their futile struggle. Often what occurs in the Gaza strip is not ‘news worthy’ in our countries as it is so frequent but a quick search will bring up localised news articles from only two days ago which cite evictions, destruction of Arab properties and Palestinian deaths at the hands of Israeli troops.

The documentary follows the lives of notable activists in the region and is grounded in the birth and childhood of Emad’ son, Gibreel. It asks questions about the conflict, Palestinian struggle and hope.

It is worth a watch, has won a number of awards and despite a disheartening ending it will challenge your understanding of the current conflict.

(It is on Netflix so you do not have to buy it!)

Has Egypt's Arab Spring Returned Back to its Source?

The news today marks a return to an Egyptian nation of the past. Nearly three years ago President Mubarak was removed and many believed the grip of military on the government to be in decline. As General Abdel Fatah al-Sisi announces his predictable candidacy in the upcoming elections has Egypt really changed or has it returned to its pre-revolution roots?

This article will argue that the Egyptians have grown tired of the revolution and are willing to sacrifice some liberties for stability. Yet, how they view their relationship to the state has altered, they see themselves as citizens rather than subjects. General al-Sisi must tread carefully if he is to retain power in this turbulent state.

In political theory protracted violence often leads citizens to demand a strong leader to resolve conflict and restore a sense of purpose to the state.  Evidently they want reform but continuous violence disrupts their economy and when foreign investment declines and businesses suffer many protesters begin to be concerned about how they will eat rather than political change. The 98% who voted yes for the new constitution in Egypt substantiates this mentality.

General al-Sisi has become a figurehead for stability in Egypt

The Muslim Brotherhood still detest the current situation but due to their lack of political prerogative they have resorted to violence and protest to secure their demands. Regretfully, without a political manner of expressing their opinions against a strong militarised state this is largely ineffective.

On ‘The World Tonight’ Ritula Shah asks Mona Makram Ebeid, lecturer at the American University in Cairo, what al-Sisi will be like as a leader and highlights his previous role as the former intelligence chief for President Mubarak.

She states that he ‘is the people’s choice’ and this is not widely debated. But, Tarek Radwan, Associate Director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, argues the military background of al-Sisi means he will look at issues from this relatively strong and repressive perspective. Ebeid contends that al-Sisi is more savvy then this and he will have to be. The Egyptians are well aware of their rights.

Research concerning coups suggests that once a coup occurs it then justifies subsequent coups. One regime has fallen to the people, surely another can?  If al-Sisi becomes President he will have to contend between the demands of the military and the people. If the military perceive him as becoming a weak leader they will remove him and if the people grow tired of his rule they will protest. What complicates the matter is that it is the military that breed corruption in Egypt as they dominate the government posts. Real democracy is impossible in this climate of officership.

(Steven Cook’s book entitled ‘Ruling But Not Governing: The Military and Political Development in Egypt, Algeria and Turkey’ covers military rule in greater detail)

The Egyptian Army has a stake in political decisions and is far from apolitical.

True democracy looks unlikely for the Egyptian people but the protests have warned politicians that the people are able to act. Whether al-Sisi's election will lead to tighter repression or a gradual and controlled opening up of the state is uncertain in this present climate but he has a difficult task ahead.

Mali: The Tuaregs, MNLA and Ansar Dine

The plight of the Tuareg people has been largely ignored in the Western world. As mercenaries for the deposed Muammar Gaddafi they have received scorn, abuse and displacement in the wake of the Libyan revolution. Many would argue, in rage at the atrocities that Gaddafi conducted, that this tribes assistance to the mad dictator should be punished. I can only conclude that hindsight is a wonderful tool, the Tuareg people had no option.

The Tuaregs are known as the ‘Kurds of Africa’ and as a people span five separate states. They occupy some of the harshest land in the world relying only on livestock and limited supplies of water. As the world’s climate alters life is becoming increasingly harder.

After the revolution in Libya concluded in 2011 it was the Tuaregs that took the brunt of popular dissent. With only a sparse population Libya relied on labour migrants during Gaddafi’s era and thus the sub-Saharan tribes flocked to this source of wealth. Most were involved in all sectors of the economy but due to some fighting for Gaddafi over half of the current detainees in Libyan prisons are black sub-Saharan Africans.

For those that returned to their native lands the desert life is one of hardship and comes as a shock to those accustomed to electricity, running water and healthcare. In Mali, the government did little to address the concerns of the Tuareg people as the South embezzled the economy and corruption ensued. Revolutions have occurred frequently in the past and thus this generation’s revolution was inevitable as highly trained mercenaries returned only knowing one trade, the art of killing.

Droughts severely reduce the Tuareg livestock causing starvation 

Who are the MNLA?

The MNLA (National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad) was founded in October 2011 and aimed to create a Tuareg separatist state entitled Azawad. They have heavy weapons brought down from Libya and are experienced fighters.

Highly trained MNLA fighters with a heavy arsenal of weapons

Who are the Ansar Dine?

Ansar Dine stands for ‘defenders of the faith’ in Arabic and seeks to impose Sharia law in Mali. They aim to realise Osama Bin Laden’s dream of an Afghanistan esque Arab Emirate under strict Sharia law in Africa.

Ansar Dine seek the implementation of Sharia law in Mali

These two forces have opposing goals but both needed to overthrow the government of Mali to begin their campaigns. Consequently, they conducted concurrent operations in the region and took control of Northern Mali. I must stress they were not working together but just happened to see a benefit in avoiding conflict with each other.

Yet, these differences caused cracks in the MNLA operations as the Ansar Dine vied for control over cities such as Gao after the north was taken. In addition, the MNLA took over lands which belonged to other tribes, such as the Dogon people, causing general dissent against the northern occupation.

Therefore, the MNLA was beaten back and Islamist militants took control. The French and Mali forces continue to fight these militants.

What I desire to accentuate is the difference between the MNLA and the Ansar Dine. For the purposes of the mass media attention the two were conflated. It was easier to secure backing for operations in the region if the Ansar Dine’s Islamist crackdown was highlighted and the threat of terrorism exploited. Rather than suggest we were fighting a tribal group who face economic hardship and desire secular self-autonomy.  These demands are not unreasonable and often receive worldwide backing in other parts of the world. 

Further peace talks should offer reasonable promises and incentives to the Tuareg’s to quell dissent. The revolution may be over for this generation but another generation will take up arms to fight for the rights of this forgotten people.

We must be more willing to look deeper into conflicts to understand the rationale of groups and break apart the media’s rhetoric.

Inspiration for this article comes from the recent Aljazeera three-part documentary entitled ‘Orphans of the Sahara’. I would fully recommend watching these videos if you are interested in the Tuareg’s plight, particularly part two.

The Ukrainian Protests and Musings on the State of the EU

At the end of 2013 the Ukrainian government voted to further ties with Russia and reject a deal to strengthen links with the EU. The New Year has heralded mass protest, captivated the world media and destabilised the country as a whole.

This article will look at what makes the EU so attractive to join, Russia’s policy towards its previous Soviet states and whether the EU membership is simply a unifying purpose that opposition leaders are utilising for political progress.

Is the EU the perfect suitor?

It has been a difficult partnership for any states which consider the EU to not be ‘perfect’ per say. The UK has not had good relations with the EU as it seeks to remain independent and dependent – holding this balance is difficult. Likewise, as you move further East states are locked between the might of the EU and the Russians. Both powers carry advantages to cooperating with them.

With fears over the EU typified by Greece's economic turmoil, why are states still eager to join?

Simply economics, grants and freedom of travel between countries have helped states starve off turmoil.

Poland is a prime example of a flourishing state which has adopted wholeheartedly the European Union mechanisms to boost its economy. Reading a 2008 document published by the Polish Government it suggest that the membership helped reduce unemployment from 20% in 2003 to 11.4% by the end of 2007. This was accompanied by a nominal rise in salaries by 58%

From this case example we could conclude that the EU is economically beneficial.

Poland a shining example of EU integration

Not so quick…

The EU has an economic problem as it seeks to make states economically similar to allow freedom of trade. This works when the global economic system is growing. However, logically if economic decline ensues then the similarity of the EU has led economic suffering. Daniel Hannan aptly articulates this when he discusses Spain:

“Nowhere is the failure of the euro clearer than in Spain. A country which was running a budget surplus going into the crash has been reduced to penury and squalor by the determination of its own political class, and Europe's, to maintain the monetary union at any cost. Who has gained? Bankers and Eurocrats. Who has lost? Everyone else.”

Moreover, economists used to believe that an economic monoculture insinuated a positive economic climate but following the economic crash they have turned to the lessons of nature. Indeed a 2009 Bank of England report summarises an argument I have been suggesting for a number of years:

“In consequence, the financial system became, like plants, animals and oceans before it, less disease-resistant. When environmental factors changed for the worse, the homogeneity of the financial eco-system increased materially its probability of collapse.”

Ergo, an economy based on a single currency and economic model makes the states within the EU less resistant to economic shocks.

Has this currency debased our individual economies?

Returning to the Ukraine the economic growth which the EU membership offers seems attractive. Yet, if it is the economy that is a concern then surely the 15 billion dollar bailout from Russia would resolve the dissent and the cut in gas prices is bound to appease protesters?

In the Ukraine the riots have little to do with the economy. The Ukrainians want democracy and see closer ties with Russia as a suppression of their rights as substantiated by the recent anti-protest laws.

(On a side note, Putin’s claim that they are simply helping their ‘brothers’ in the Ukraine and the bailout had nothing to do with the government E-turn on the EU seems unlikely… the coincidence is too high to be an accident.)

What is concerning is that joining the European Union may be being used by the Ukrainian opposition as a unifying focus to join groups together against the current government. They know that by doing this they will draw in the media and tap into the current discussion about joining the EU. The Ukrainians are tired of a corrupt government but by using the EU they debase the organisation. If it is associated with regime-change rather than democracy then the EU has not become a vehicle of democracy but an opportunity for opposition parties. The EU cannot afford to pick sides or the whole concept is threatened.

Democracy or regime change?

I may be overly pessimistic about the oppositions intentions and my political musings could become unfounded. Yet, my experience of politics has taught me to ask these questions, no matter how absurd.

The future of the EU is questionable and democracy promotion is complicated. The battle for Ukraine continues on its snow swept streets.

Peacekeeping in the Central African Republic

The Central African Republic (CAR) has descended into another bout of sectarian violence as Muslim fighters have had their arms seized and the minority comes under attack from the Christian majority.

This region of Africa is often forgotten as Sudan, The Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda dominate the news as violent clashes, war lords and child soldiers plague these states.

France has deployed to its old colony in an attempt to quell the violence and though some have argued that it is another attempt to serve their own interests they have been well received. CAR has 4.6 million people and only 200 police officers, that is 1 policemen to every 23,000 people. No wonder they cannot control the populace.

French troops patrol limited areas of the CAR

Michel Djotodia came to power on the back of a rebellion last year after the Muslim Seleka ousted Francois Bozize on the charge of failing to respect a peace deal agreed in 2007. Yet, the rebels have continued to attack the populace leading to the rise of sectarian violence as Christian ‘anti-balaka’ work to protect themselves. Making matters worse is that the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) is operating in this region. In addition, it is not a good moment to be an elephant as over 90% have been killed for exports of ivory to the developed world in order to finance the conflict.

However, what affect have the French forces had upon the violence in this region? Though widely well received is that because they have supported the majority Christians as suggested by the Muslims?

In the CAR French peacekeepers have, with the permission of the UN, begun to remove weapons from the Muslim fighters but this has allowed militias to launch reprisals. Christians were angry at the government, blaming their economic conditions on its policies but in reality it reflected the current global pattern and the UN’s inability to access the region as it feared armed groups.

Disarming the Muslim groups draws the state into a stalemate and as suggested third party interventions appear to prolong conflict. They place a barrier between the fighters and enable them to build up rhetoric and weapons. If peacekeepers are implemented for a long period which enables the sides to ‘forget’ the atrocities which occurred or economically divert their attention then this may be effective. Yet, with no form of statehood it looks likely to be a costly and protracted peacekeeping mission.

Many desperately flee the conflict via any form of transport.

Nonetheless, the haunting memory of Rwanda keeps Western politicians eager to implement forces to prevent the feared genocide in the CAR. But are they doing enough?

In the Defence Web’s analysis of peacekeeping it notes that Retired Rear Admiral Rolf Hauter argues the mandate for an operation must correspond with the requirement on the ground to have any chance of success, “the forces assigned to the operation must be able and willing to execute the mandate ie adequate numbers, trained and correctly equipped. If not, it will most probably be a waste of time”.

The forces committed to conflict resolution must be significant enough to reach to all corners of the state. Presently, French forces are unable to police the rural areas where the militants have set up new bases and continue the atrocities.

In light of the British Army’s Strategic Narrative published on the 1^st October 2013 it is clear that for a military force to achieve successful intervention a division strength of 25,000 troops is necessary. In fact, this is mentioned consistently in the report. Simply, we need to concentrate on several issues at a time and devote considerable resources to conflict resolution, whether economic or militarily. Cutting the Armed forces in the United Kingdom is the appropriate course of action as the United Kingdom is accused by Robert Gates, former US defence secretary, as being unable to fulfil its full partnership alongside the United States.

If we are committed to resolving conflict in the international context we must retain a strong military force which we are prepared to deploy for long periods of time in effective peacekeeping missions. With the Taliban suggesting Afghanistan will be retaken after the troops pull out in 2014 we need to revise our peacekeeping strategy and halt risky and small operations which serve only to reduce conflict in the short-term. Long-term policies may not be popular with the voter but the public must stop and consider the arguments.

The Plight of the Botswana Bushmen

On Tuesday the BBC released an article on the Bostwana Bushmen. When reading it I could not help but think of the parallels to the Native Americans on reservations in America. Visiting Africa and going on safari is something I have always considered on my list of things to do but how much is our tourism costing people in Africa?

Well at first that was what I considered the issue was, an attempt by the government to expand tourism. However, the Botswana Bushmen's land lies directly on the world's richest diamond field.

These tribesman live on and from the land and therefore they are not costing the world a great deal. Yet, now they have been forced to live a 'modern life'. They have become dependent on the state rather then on their own self sufficiency. When we are considering the implications of the benefit culture in our own country this is worrying (George Osborne wants to cut more money from the welfare state - click here for the full story).

My thoughts are that as a Western world we are concerned with a sustainable world yet our businesses are forcing perhaps the most sustainable tribes to modernise. Our lives are not particular happy, money does not make things better. You just need to read the thoughts of Mark Boyle who lived on no money for an entire year and continues to do so to realise this.

I am encouraged by the words that Mark quotes from Ghandi, 'Be the change you want to see in the world'.

That does not mean we all have to go to limits that Mark has but lets consider our actions so that the West's contradiction becomes a quality of the past not the present. Be the change. Read the BBC article and make your own deductions.

The Tribesman face a difficult transition to an unwanted life.

The Democratic Republic of Congo: Fighting in the Katanga Region

We, the West, may like to hide our past and pretend that we have moved on from it all. As though we have matured from a ‘naughty’ stage in our development to reach the heights of human welfare, economic prosperity and become the guardians of global peace. I mean we banned the slave trade, defeated communism and attempt to secure peace at every turn. Yet, though we like to promote this side we often forget that we accelerated the slave trade into a global business, wrecked countless states so its people could not express themselves, and often provide weapons for profit without considering the implications they may have. The repercussions of our abuses during the time of the colonies and the slave trade are still felt across the developing world.

Of course, we should not be too hard on ourselves. The slave trade has been a constant feature throughout the world for countless centuries and the fact that we got powerful… well other empires have existed before us that committed terrible acts of brutality. This is not a justification, rather the necessary context for this discussion.

The issue is that we, at least on the outside, now fight against most of our previous qualities. However, the developing world does not easily forget what we did. The signs of our presence are everywhere from the language they speak, the borders they guard and the political systems they use.

(Side note: There is a good film coming out called '12 Years A Slave', the interview of Chiwetel Ejiofor in the Culture was interesting and he has really taken his role a step further by campaigning strongly for an awareness of the slavery that still occurs to this present day.)

We should not forget the past.

It is not front page news, but the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been having some problems in the eastern and southern part of the state. It is easy to see why.

Throughout the research for my dissertation I have been focusing on the sources of conflict. Of course across the world these sources vary in their prominence but a unifying factor is the economy. Everything appears to be based around it. 

When we look at our own lives it seems obvious. Why do we attend school? To get a job (Yes, I know the government forces us to but they do have a reason). Why do we attend university? To get a better job (hopefully). Most of our lives are revolved around the economy and it consequently has an influence on our lives.

What the people of the developing world want before democracy and any other fancy initiatives is the ability to survive. Thinking about this I am reminded of an article I read about Morocco. It stated that though the people took some interest in politics their main focus was how they were going to feed themselves the next day. They do not care unless they can see the benefits in their everyday life. That is why aid is so focused on building a basis so that people can begin to consider democracy and other projects. Makes sense.

The DRC is a resource rich state, in fact that is an understatement... it is one of the richest in the world. Most of it based in the east and south of its territory (see below). Starting to get where I am going with this one?

The location of resources in the DRC

That is right. For a state repeatedly rated poorly in the UN Human Index this should not be the case. Furthermore, the people of the DRC are not blind to their natural wealth and understand it creates vast amounts of money. They observe truck after truck go by with the resources they have mined to be sold for huge profits which will rarely reach their way back to them. I can understand why they are angry.

Here enters another factor I witness in every conflict - leadership. The people can be angry but often will not do anything about it until a strong leader unites them together, works out a plan and tells them why they are fighting. 

For the one of the richest regions in the DRC, Katanga, it took the leadership of Gedeon Kyungu Mutanga to kickstart another conflict in the region. He was freed in September 2011 after gunmen attacked the prison he was in.

It did not take long for this former militia leader to draw men to his banner with promises of a 'better life'. A man who fled a rebel base told a BBC reporter that:

"Gedeon came to our village in August 2012," he said.

"We did not see him with our eyes; he hid in a hut to talk to us.

He told us that if we joined the Kata Katanga, we would have a better life. He told us that if Katanga became independent, it would put an end to the harassment by the soldiers, and would give us access to the resources that belong to us.

"Katanga is very rich, but we don't benefit at all. He told us that would change."

For men of this region this is an attractive offer as the Congolese law that 40% of the taxes on companies who operate in the area should be spent in this region have never materialized. In the face of regular mistreatment by government forces an armed struggle was inevitable.

Yet, what has limited support for the rebels is the brutish way in which they treat the local people too. The rebels, drawn from communities similar to the ones they are abusing, often rape, pillage and loot villages to support their army and in desperation against the overwhelming government and UN forces.

Indeed, the Congolese Prime Minister Matata Ponyo stated that "For me there is no rebellion".

With an 8-hour battle between rebels and government troops yesterday the President's statement seems unfounded...

It is not more violence that will cure this desperate situation but a united effort by the West to understand the havoc we wrecked here and encourage the government to improve the humanitarian conditions of these resource rich states. They need to have the bread of tomorrow to consider the politics of today.

If you are interested in the Congo, the Dutch settlment and all things historical you should check out "This World: Dan Snow's History of Congo".

For the purposes of keeping this post shorter I have not explored the rebel group, how the borders with other countries helps their struggle and other conflicts in the state so I would simply google Katanga, Gedeon Kyungu Mutanga or the DRC if you want to know more. Further, I may follow up with more articles on this or feel free to post below and I will attempt to answer your questions.

MINT beats BRIC

For all those investors out there you probably already know but there are some new players on the global market who are beginning to throw their weight around. It is the year of the MINT not the BRIC. I am not going crazy (yet), BRIC actually stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China and for the past years they have been growing exponentially and dominating the markets. The term was invented by this guy…

Jim O'Neill, retiring chairman of Goldman Sachs

So what is with all this MINT? MINT resembles Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey and these are the new states tipped to go big by our trusted economist Jim.

China has always, in my relatively little understanding of the world, been a big player in the production world and pretty much everything is made by it. However, recently America has started to pull out of China as its currency strengthens and its one-child policy causes an increase in wages due to a limit pool of workers. What makes the MINT states important is that they stand between the trading routes of the world (minus Nigeria), have a large working population and are taking advantage of their raw resources.

You only have to look at this graph that the BBC posted to realise that though China still takes the top spot the MINT countries will have jumped up the rankings by 2050.

Moreover, it is positive for the environment in that it may cut down air/sea miles as trade becomes closer to its intended destination.

And plus these guys know how to party! To be accepted into the Mexican community you need to learn how to dance and the local language. Furthermore, when Jim O’Neil suggested he should move to Mexico they said they would get English beers brought over and plumbed in. You cannot say no.

Investors watch out!

If you want to listen to the full podcast click here. Also there will be podcasts on Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey throughout this week on Radio 4 or catch it on the BBC website.

Before investing millions on the expert opinion (I offer no professional advice so do not blame me if things turn sour) presented in this blog give this article by Chris Wright a read.

Fallujah? Where's that?

I am about to begin my final term at university and cannot stop thinking about the ominous dissertation. For months I have been unsettled with my topic of ‘International Aid against Localised Aid and its Effect on Conflict Resolution’, partly due to this blog. Evidently, aid is a factor in conflict resolution but I wanted to write a dissertation which could illustrate how to resolve conflict in a state and then maybe the world. Yes, that is a pretty big task (and I am becoming slightly insane over it) but I feel that conflict has a framework just like any other political process. Each community must be assessed on its individual characteristics but most sources and resolutions of conflict will be apparent within its turmoil. Should conflict be resolved? That is a question for another day but it definitely needs answering.

However, with conflict dominating our news channels every day I thought I would have a go at writing a document that hopes to offer a framework for resolving it. It will not be the final answer, but maybe it will offer a step for another to offer a resolution.

So, that is the update on what I am up to, a warning to expect some more articles based on this theme and a plea for any point of views on the matter. All opinions welcome.

To kick start this attempt Iraq offers a perfect example.

Fallujah is Oh So Close.

Recently, the city of Fallujah has been working itself on to every news channel across the world. I know what you are thinking, it is a random city in Iraq that some insurgents have taken over. We have heard it all before. Stop. This city is only one hour’s drive from Baghdad. It is like insurgents taking over Oxford if it was a few miles near to London... that is too close.

Tad small, I would suggest googling it yourself if you are that interested!

The Centre

Utilising Clausewitz’s approach we can conclude that Baghdad is the centre of Iraq and that the centre of a state should be its safest region? It is after all the main residence of government officials and its’security forces. Subsequently, it is worrying that insurgents can strike at Baghdad, with over 19 killed on Sunday in bomb attacks, and occupy the south part of a city an hour away.

‘Mission Accomplished in Iraq’ said George Bush. I think not, as security in the region reaches a new low.

So why Fallujah? And what can be done to resolve the conflict?

Why?

Writing out ‘why Fallujah?' would take some time so succinctly it is the ‘Jerusalem’ of Iraq and symbol of resistance for all Sunni Arabs. Recently, the Shia minority government arrested a Sunni MP in the region and broke up the protest camp in Ramadi, seen as the ‘headquarters for the leadership of al-Qaeda’. This led Sunni tribesmen to begin working with al-Qaeda to bring down the government. So, the government naturally decides that bombarding Fallujah, the ‘Jerusalem’ and the ‘city of mosques and minarets’, is the best course of action.

'The City of Mosques and Minarets'

I spy with my political eye something beginning with... sectarian violence.

It is not a game, it is the conceivable future. Fueling the conflict is a majority/minority divide.

The Shias are the ruling party but before the Sunnis ruled under Saddam Hussein. This change in government fuels a feeling that all peaceful opportunities to effect change and gain a share of the economic benefits are blocked so they resort to violence, particularly as they regard the balance of power within the society as unstable. Violence is currently the language of diplomacy.

It is partly based on the truth and predominately based on assumption.

America

When Iraq is discussed America's controversial war is usually the second topic. However, I am going to be controversial. 

With regard to Fallujah the Americans did something right, in fact they hit it on the nail. Instead of fighting al-Qaeda on their own they fought with the Sunnis against this extremism.  By supporting Sahwa, or Awakening Councils, disturbed by al-Qaeda’s extremist policy and brutal methods, the extremists were pushed back from Baghdad. Perhaps they adopted this policy because Fallujah was the focus of some of the fiercest fighting in Iraq and thus the Americans truly understood the dangers associated with this city. Or they wanted to distract the Sunnis against fighting the Shia. Either way, go Team America!

Fierce fighting in the region gained it particular consideration in American policy.

However, when the Americans left the Shia government stopped supporting the Sahwa enabling al-Qaeda to stir up anti-government resentment and strengthen its position with fighters from the present conflict in Syria. They are almost certainly using non-lethal supplies, discussed in my early blog entitled Syria and the Global Arms Trade, given to them by the West. This is mainly why the West has been reluctant to openly provide arms.

Resolution

Resolving the conflict in this region is not easy. If it was it would not have gone on for this long. Religious differences are cited as serving to prolong violence but are often a channel through which people express their disparity with the current government. Religious differences did not prevent the Americans working with the Sunnis to rid the region of al-Qaeda. Yet, the Shia governments marginalization of the Sunnis will not help the matter. Fullujah may be retaken, but at what cost? How many years of violence will be added by another heavy handed approach. Attempting to separate the Sunnis from al-Qaeda presents an option that has a hope of resolving violence for the long-term and pushing the Sunnis and Shias into political dialogue. Rather then targeting the Sunnis they need to engage them politically and push back al-Qaeda from the centre of Iraq.

Violence Spirals in Bangladesh as the General Election Looms

As extreme weather batters the coast of Britain the exhausted people of Bangladesh face another day of violence. No, it is not terrorist organisations (well these ones are technically democratic parties) unleashing a swath of violence but the general election tomorrow. This should be when the one hundred and fifty million people of Bangladesh celebrate their right to vote, coming together to decide the future of their country but instead it is marred by a 48-hour ‘hartal’ (closure of shops and offices) in addition to national blockades on vital infrastructure.  Allegedly this will help to ‘win the right of the people to vote’ but rather it seems the whole country is under lock and key.

Fighting increase in the streets of Dhaka

For two women, Prime Minister Hasina and the former Prime Minister Khalenda Zia, this is a power struggle. Since uniting to throw off the dictatorial rule of Hussein Mohammed Ershad in 1990, they have been determined to instigate democracy, secure rights and to advocate democracy. So why is there such violence? Why did Hasina refuse to allow a caretaker government to take over as the polls were contested?

Understanding their intentions is difficult at the moment as campaigning laws mean that news channels and foreign reporters are unable to talk to government officials and opposition leaders… freedom of press is certainly embodied in this one? Tricky.

So, let us introduce our political adversaries to the ring.

The Parties

The Bangladesh Awami League, the current ruling party, stylises itself as the leading ‘pro-liberation’ force based on nationalism and a celebration of Bengali culture. In the Nielsen two year survey, fifty percent felt the country was moving in the right direction and thirty six percent gave it a favourable rating. It led the nationalist struggle against Pakistan.

The BAL election symbol

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the largest opposition party, is not that divergent from the Awani League. It combines nationalist, liberal and left-wing elements which are opposed to the ruling party. It has been involved in major liberalisation of Bangladesh but has been part of a controversial Four Party Alliance with two hard-line Islamist parties, Jamaat-e-Islami and Islami Oikya Jote.

The BNP election symbol

They are rather similar parties, with the BNP representing a more Islamic take on politics. However, often arguments between these two women have caused difficulties. At the last election Zia stopped her party from sitting in parliament over the seating arrangements. Right? Now tell us the real reason.

Caretaker Governments

These governments taking over whilst elections occur is the norm in Bangladesh. Hasina decided it was time that this law was revoked.

Though many cite the refusal to let a caretaker government take over as undemocratic I can see why Hasina changed the rules.

You only need to look back at the impact of the last election to realise that in 2007 the caretaker government was weak, perceived as unable to resist a takeover by the BNP, and eventually it declared a state of emergency following the Awami withdrawal from the election. It enabled the military to have influence in the political sphere which is against democratic values.

Likewise, special protection for the Awami and BNP was removed by the caretaker government.

Unrest leads to a heavy handed response from the police.

Parties withdrawing from general elections is clearly a common occurrence in Bangladeshi politics and not simply because a caretaker government was not implemented. Furthermore, caretaker governments are not elected in the United Kingdom during elections though our elections do have less of a chance of being fixed (maybe that was a bit naïve, gerrymandering would certainly count). Yes, the argument that the election could be manipulated by the Awami party is topical and we have witnessed it in other states in similar positions. Yet, we will never know as the BNP have boycotted the election.

Most of Bangladesh would like to see a competitive election and an end to this infighting.

Why Violence?

Violence in Bangladesh has grown out of a secular vs religious conflict as the BNP continues to further align itself with more extreme Islamic parties.

This is a trend that is common across the world at the moment. A battle of the religions.

The issue is that the more extreme parties under the BNP have never won an election so feel that violence is the only course of action to win recognition. For the government to give into these demands and give power to these groups legitimises this channel of expression and encourages others to resort to violence. Therefore, as scores of opposition supporters die in police shooting and commuters have been burnt to death by protestors in strike-defying buses, there seems little hope for a peaceful election.

The Future

Following my research in democratisation I do not put much hope in elections unless they imbed themselves into a truly competitive, free, fair and regular atmosphere.  In fact we see issues with our own political system all the time, the expenses scandal and gerrymandering are a prime example. But, I do believe that this election should have been able to run its course with both parties involved. This is not an authoritarian regime hoping to cement its control by allowing a little more freedom but two women striving for democracy. I fear that their struggle may impede its progression.

Keep an eye on the elections tomorrow despite the flooding at home because the next month of Bangladeshi politics promises to be interesting.