Giving Keys and Giving Meaning.

Aid often gets less attention when surrounded by so much conflict. Honestly, we live in a world where bad news is good news. When talking to a friend we said that perhaps the news should feature one good story in every news showing, a bit like Russell Howard's aptly titled show 'Good News'?  The purpose would be to give us something uplifting; encourage us to work for the safety and security of others in our local community. As these storms rage outside I cannot help but think of the plight of the homeless throughout the United Kingdom.

So, I thought I would offer an example I stumbled across of some good news in the middle of all this violence. Some may of heard of them, but it is new(s) to me.

Giving Keys, a business set up by Caitlin Crosby, employs homeless people to hammer words such as HOPE, COURAGE and LOVE onto old keys. People love them and this success has enabled the homeless people employed to earn a living and to reach their true potential.

Below is a video that explains it all (skip to 2.50 to hear about how it started).

Now, I am a natural pessimist and will, if given enough time, find a flaw in everything. It is not a bad trait if used constructively (that is what I keep telling myself). Similarly, being too optimistic can be dangerous when the plans do not go quite to plan.

So I would point out that Crosby is from a privileged background. With powerful friends setting up a business was easier as once one celebrity was doing it, everyone would.

However, there is nothing wrong with using our uncontrollable background to help those who are less fortunate. At least she took a step out there and approached someone she did not know.

The reason I'm posting this article is to encourage us to all think about those in our own country who are homeless this Christmas. Sometimes we are too centered on the international stage and forget those suffering in our local community. The recession is still being felt and its time we move beyond the cost of goods and think of the worth of goods. Giving presents is about the meaning not the cost.

Do something you mean this festive season, approach someone who is suffering and raise awareness about an issue close to you.

China Reverses the One-Child Policy: Discussion on the Policy and an Ageing Population.

Yesterday, China officially relaxed its one-child policy introduced in 1979 as its unpopularity, gender imbalance and economic factors start to drastically influence the country. Forced and selective abortions and the complications of an ageing population have angered many. Gender imbalance caused by a preference for male offspring will leave 24 million Chinese men without a wife by the end of the decade. Economically, the labour force in China shrank for the first time last year as employers are forced to increase pay to attract employees. So what has stopping over 200 million births achieved? Will relaxed laws encourage parents to have more children? Should the population be considered in greater depth by politicians and the world as a whole?

Abortions

The violation of women’s rights has been a major issue in China. Parents often medically abort babies if they are girls as the parents prefer male children because of an age-old tradition. Essentially, the Chinese believe, as with Western cultures and the name of the family, that the bloodline descends through the males. Also, males were seen as a form of pension for many.

However, sex-selective abortions are illegal in the country, couples face fines for doing it, but experts fear that by cracking down on these abortions could drive the practice underground. It is a tricky situation for the government to handle.

Likewise, if families are unable to pay the 40,000 yuan fine then the baby must be aborted.

This has led to over 336 million abortions.

This harrowing picture of Feng Jianmei, and her aborted child, enraged Chinese citizens. This is the reality for many who are unable to pay the 40,000 yuan fine for a second child.

Ageing Population

China is poised to become an aged society before it is rich enough to support this ageing population. We see similar issues in the UK with the mistreatment of the elderly consistently in the news. The situation in China has been exacerbated by the one child policy coupled with people living longer who are unable to work.

Right, this is going to sound wrong and some may take offence but please bear with me. I realise I am considering some difficult areas of humanity.

So, here goes.

The increasing technological advances in healthcare have been undoubtedly a progression for humankind. But, with this advance has come the ability to keep our loved ones going for longer. Why should we, when we have the relevant technology, witness our parents, grandparents or greatparents die earlier then they have to? As a human I do not, I love my family.

As an outsider, i.e not a human but some form of metaphorical alien, I would disagree.

From the outside, and this is a viewpoint without emotion or empathy, the planet cannot sustain our population. Evidently, restricting parents to one child comes with complications but it has prevented 336 million people being born. Yet, the way it was achieved was unseemly.

Furthermore, if the elderly are assessed against our capitalist system then they are economically inefficient. I feel wrong to class them as that but an outsider may reach that conclusion. This presents difficulties as defining humankind in these simplistic terms presents a conundrum. What about those who are presently unemployed? Do we stop supporting them because they are economically inefficient at that present time? Thus, we must define humans by something more then their economic output. 

What do we assess? What they have done in their lifetimes? How many wars they have fought? How lazy they have been? Consequently, issues are presented when we do not define people economically. Is there a happy (?) medium? 

Moreover, is it right that we prolong the lives of humans beyond what is natural? Though what does natural mean? And, thus should we change our economic model? It is the state that must support the elderly as the children must work to keep the economy going. Those against state intervention must consider this predicament. 

If we continue to define humans economically, just look at the news and you will find this, then these arguments need answering.

Personally, I have witnessed the decline of my grandmother from sweeping the patios 3 years ago at the age of 94 to an inability to remember or function at the age of 97. She is like this because she refuses to take the medicine that will keep her going and I somewhat admire her for it. She repeatedly states that a good diet, a healthy lifestyle and her stubborn attitude is what kept her going. For the most part she is right.

What does all this mean?

• I think we should assess whether our population growth is sustainable.
• Analyse different methods for population control. I do not want to violate free will but merely encourage parents to consider the impacts of population on the world. A child is a gift not a matter of fact and thus the parents should be prepared to support and nurture their children. Of course there are exceptions to this (i.e. rape).
• Assess the states remit and responsibilities for the care of the elderly.

I want to answer these questions so that we understand our commitments to the elderly, the economic factors and the pressures placed upon the next generation. Avoiding this difficult issue will not help the situation.

This Native American proverb surmerises this well:

"Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children."

Gender Imbalance

By the end of the decade 24 million men in China will be without a wife.

Yet, as China has developed economically the issue of gender in the vibrant coastal regions has largely transformed from birth control to other issues. The number of men without wives looks likely to fall in future years.

Further, the Government is trying to promote women’s rights throughout the country with roadside signs telling villagers that girls can continue the family line; focus-group discussions for mothers-in-law; help packages for women starting businesses and extra encouragement for girls to enter schools. Officials have even tried to promote the idea of men marrying into women's families, rather than vice versa.

Likewise, the idea of sons acting as a form of pension is not entirely accurate. This report typifies this:

“Chen admits that she was initially disappointed when her daughter was born. "Of course, I wanted to have a boy. But after giving birth, I thought: 'I don't care. This is my baby,'" she says.

"I looked around me; one of my neighbours had five sons and one daughter. One day, when he was 60 or 70, he wanted some money from his sons for living costs. He cooked a tableful of dishes and bought wine and invited his sons. But none of them agreed to give the money to him. He was furious and smashed the table with his stick. And I thought: 'Well, sons are useless.'"

Meanwhile, she noticed, daughters were returning to visit their parents, bringing gifts and money. Despite strong pressure from her husband and in-laws, she refused to have another child: Qiaoyue was enough for her.”

In fact, based on a sex ratio estimate in 2008 there were only 1.06 male(s)/female.

These progressions are positive for the rights of women and I look forward to seeing further progression.

For more information on abortions and gender imbalance visit this article entitled ‘China’s great Gender Crisis’

Economics

Economically, it is pertinent to discuss the work of Sir Arthur Lewis who won a Nobel Peace Prize in 1979 for his theories of development and its relation to population. Lewis’ “dual sector model” purports that economies advance without triggering inflation because the expanding industrial sector can scoop up labour from the subsistence primary (agricultural) sector. Thus, an unlimited supply of peasants willing to work in factories for low, but not subsistence, wages allows the industrial sector to power ahead by earning, then reinvesting, excessive profits.

However, there comes a time when the supply of surplus labour peters out and developing countries confront a labour shortage. The point at which an abundance of labour is about to vanish is known as a “Lewis turning point”. Among its symptoms: wage increases outstrip productivity, industrial profits decline, investment drops and inflation becomes a threat.

This is exactly what is occurring in China.

Inflation, increases in wages and a strengthening of the reminbi have pushed up the cost of exports from China.

Government sign in Tangshan Township: "For a prosperous, powerful nation and a happy family, please practice family planning." This sign is perhaps a tad simplistic in its conclusions?

Ergo, China’s reliance on a cheap workforce has been undone by its birth control policies.

Questions answered?

I have certainly updated my knowledge on the one-child policy in China. It is important to note that the policy has only been reformed to allow parents with either parent being an only child to have one more child. This means for this present generation most of the couples can have two children.

Furthermore, within China parents are focused on giving their children the best possible future and therefore one-child families are likely to remain. It is seen as a norm rather then an oddity now.

The government of China has been surprisingly understanding in its treatment of gender in the country by promoting the role of women in society.

Regarding abortion it is a predicament that comes with enforcing the policy. The government has to enforce the policy's subsequent fines and forced abortions for it to work and keeping abortions away from the underground system is a good thing. Clearly, by revoking the policy then the abortions would decrease, which we will hopefully now witness.

An ageing population is a predicament that needs to be discussed in all countries of the world. I really feel this is an issue that needs more attention from the media. Rather then focusing on the plight of the elderly we need to assess why they are in this state? The pension system was an inviting concept that failed to fulfill to its promises due to economic pressure. Are pensions beneficial?

Economically, China will now face the consequences of its policy. However, it is good for the rights of workers, their pay and will perhaps slow down the economy.

I would love to hear your views on the one-child policy, the ageing population and why/if you think population is an issue for this generation?

Boko Haram: Exploring the Terrorist Threat in Nigeria

Recently this blog has focused on conflict in several areas that have regularly made front page news, Syria and Afghanistan. The Syrian conflict has and remains to cause issues for the West as they attempt to appear strong and effective in a conflict which has reached a predictable stalement. Afghanistan, which began with a rapid air campaign and a swift victory, has descended into a drawn out obligation for Coalition forces as they endeavour to fight an enemy they cannot find or discourage. However, I now turn my attention to conflict in Africa and particularly Boko Haram.

Though not front page news, Boko Haram have been involved in countless attacks in the oil rich region of Nigeria. This post will cover who the group are, what effect they have had, and if this troubled region is the next major issue for the West.

Who are they?

• Boko Haram was set up in 2002 and denotes a local Hausa phrase meaning ‘Western education is forbidden’. But, its full title is Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda'awati wal-Jihad which means "People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad”. I’ll leave the pronunciation of that title to the linguists out there.
• Like most terrorist groups it did not initially start out as a militant group but rather sought to oppose Western education in an effort to safeguard Muslims and their values.
• In 2009 its main objective shifted as it worked to set up an independent Muslim state in Nigeria and consequently peaceful actions turned to violence.
• By 2012 the group had split. We can only infer that some within the group were uneasy with the more extreme actions that Boko Haram had instigated.
• The offshoot was named Ansaru, or Jama'atu Ansarul Muslimina Fi Biladis Sudan meaning "Vanguards for the Protection of Muslims in Black Africa", and has connections with al-Qaeda. They threaten to attack Westerners in self-defence.
• The groups operate out of the desert which lies on the Northern edge of Nigeria and provides a perfect base due to its remoteness and tough conditions.

Map showing the North East part of Nigeria where Boko Haram Operate

What effect have they had?

• According to the UN over 1,200 people have been killed by Boko Haram related disturbances in the state of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe.  
• 48 separate Boko Haram related attacks have occurred since emergency law was introduced in 2009
•  Ambitious 2011 raid on the UN building in the capital, Abuja.
• Gains resources from bank lootings and ransom payments.
• The Nigerian military have been deployed en mass and have blocked the mobile signal in an attempt to prevent coordination between militant groups.
• They have been largely ineffective against the groups as they continue its mission to reign terror and unite Northern Nigeria.

Violence in North-East Nigeria has escalated

How has America reacted?

In November 2013, America designated the two groups as terrorists. So, what does that mean? Surely that is just giving them a label?

Actually it has had extensive consequences:

• Regulatory agencies in the US have been instructed to stop business and financial transactions within the group.
• It is a crime under US law to provide material support to the two groups.
• Face a minimum of 20 years in jail for aiding the groups.
• The use of drones began last year but for surveillance not military ops.
• Accentuates that the organisation have progressed from domestic to international aims.
• Encourages the group to aggressively target US interests in Nigeria.
• Could further radicalise the group and push it towards other international Islamist groups.

Nigeria are unkeen for the US to deploy military forces and drones in anti-terrorist operations but this could be overruled if proven links are formed between Boko Haram and al-Qaeda. Operations, similar to those in Pakistan, could follow from which some Nigerians fear Boko Haram could gain additional support from anti-government propaganda and international jihadists keen to oppose America.

Clashes between Boko Haram and the Government forces have risen.

It would be obvious to conclude that this is a delicate matter for America and Nigeria to handle. However, it is delicate foreign policy, not forthright American homogeny, which is needed to prevent Boko Haram becoming a larger and more potent force in Sub-Saharan Africa. With the attack yesterday on Bama military camp this has become a pressing issue as the Nigerian government wishes to extend the emergency law by six months to complete its objectives. Nevertheless, it must be Nigerian forces that defeat Boko Haram, the deployment of American forces will only strengthen the groups resilience as international jihadists flock to its banner.

12 Years On and What Have We Achieved in Afghanistan?

With the departure of troops from Afghanistan intended for 2014 and David Cameron’s recent trip to Camp Bastion to declare, or rather infer, ‘mission accomplished’ it seems Afghanistan is finally over.

Yet, the media was quick to draw parallels between G. W. Bush’s speech aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln on Iraq in 2003 due to their disbelief that coalition forces have managed to secure any of their objectives. They were not far off the truth.

Soldiers appear bemused?

The objectives were to:

Disable Al Qaeda

Yes, Mr. Cameron you have the right to fist bump the air as Coalition forces did disable Al Qaeda within their area of operations. However, Al Qaeda typifies a new form of actor on the international stage, one that does not have a set piece of land. Therefore, capturing a certain town or a capital will not destroy it as it is the ideology and the people which embody the organisation. To destroy this it will take localised actors, a shift in ideology or a reconciliation process. None seem likely.

Disable the Taliban

Driving the Taliban from Afghanistan is difficult. The Taliban, like Al Qaeda, are now partially removed from a certain spatial space. Yes, you can predominately find them in the south of Afghanistan but that is simply because they are predominately Pashtun and gain support from Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan presents another issue as the Pashtun constitute the majority within the northern regions. This makes it easier for Taliban fighters to cross the border but coalition troops cannot as it violates the independent statehood of Pakistan. Finally, the villagers are reluctant to inform on the Taliban as they fear reprisals as Coalition forces wind down their processes.The Taliban’s Qatar office which was seen as an embassy for a government in waiting accentuates the point. Likewise, when Coalition forces arm villager defense forces against the Taliban they often end up being shot by the same weapons they gave out the week before.

The belief that the Taliban are slowing their attacks or waiting till Coalition forces pull out is unfounded. We just are not hearing about the attacks because it is the Afghan National Army that are taking the brunt of the fighting.

This article by the BBC talks in-depth about village defense forces and the arguments for and against them.

Militias have had little success. Credit: BBC

Additionally, more Taliban attacks have started to occur in the Western and Northern areas of Afghanistan which are typically seen as safe areas for the Karzai government. It is likely that the Taliban are trying to suggest that Karzai has a lack of control over the whole state. He personally agrees, stating that:

“The entire NATO exercise was one that caused Afghanistan a lot of suffering, a lot of loss of life, and no gains because the country is not secure.”

There goes the whole ‘mission accomplished’ rhetoric… put your fist down Mr. Cameron.

(Important to note that when I refer to the Pashtun I am not stating they are all Taliban but that the Taliban are mainly of Pashtun or external origin).

Drug Prevention

This seemed to be an objective at the beginning of the campaign however it has declined as this year saw a bumper crop of poppies in Afghanistan. 6000 tons, the biggest since the invasion began, was harvested.

Conversely, Afghanistan’s 2000 drug eradiction program under the Taliban was highly effective with production falling to 185 tons in 2001 compared to 3300 tons in 2000.  It was even acknowledged at the October 2001 session of the UN General Assembly though since the war started the Coalition has been keen to distance itself from this.

Yet, the reduction in opium did have detrimental outcomes for the farmers as they struggled to feed their families. Wheat needs more water and earns no money until it is sold. The opium trade gave the money up front.

See this article for more information.

Create a stable and loyal Afghan National Army (ANA)

Yes, no, maybe?

Well some ethnic and political faction leaders have begun to revive their militia forces should the international drawdown lead to a major Taliban push to retake power. Successful? Erm, no?

This was illustrated in a November 2012 meeting organized by Herat leader Ismail Khan, in which he reportedly began taking steps to reorganize his Soviet and Taliban-era militia. Vice President Muhammad Fahim has also discussed potentially renewing the Northern Alliance force in anticipation of the need to assist Afghan government forces against the Taliban. And Uzbek leader Dostam is also reportedly trying to reorganize his loyalists in northern Afghanistan. These and similar moves could spark ethnic and communal conflict from an all-out struggle for power and a reversion to Afghan rule by faction leaders rather than elected leaders.

US forces training the Afghan National Army.

Do armies even work in a clan based societies?

Armies need to be centred on a shared common identity and a goal. At present the ANA comprises of Afghans from the North with the goal of fighting the Taliban south. The title is misleading as it is not a national force, rather what resembles the Northern Alliance with a few new toys courtesy of the coalition.

For a rather stimulating and patriotic history of the Taliban and what the Americans have done about it read this:

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL30588.pdf

So moving on to 2014 about 8,000 to 12,000 American trainers and Special Forces will remain in Afghanistan alongside with 5,000 coalition forces. Clearly some way to go and that means that not all forces are pulling out. It is one of those "we said we would pull all the troops out but then..."

In the realm of international politics that is sort of understandable.

Provide proficient Aid

This article would not fit in to my blog if I did not discuss aid. But, it is kind of the same story again - I'm really noticing a trend.

The aid is going through the governments of Kabul and thus the people are being told what they need!

Only in 2008 did the UK gov ask the people what they wanted and were truly shocked by the answer that came back.

Basically, as per, see this Ben Anderson documentary on Afghanistan. There is also a more recent one entitled 'This Is What Winning Looks Like'.

And if you prefer to listen to all the arguments surrounding Afghanistan listen to reliable Ben talking to VICE. Good discussion on women rights and the views of a typical Afghan villager.

Thoughts welcome as always.

Syria and the Global Arms Trade

In the run up to Christmas we are all frantically buying presents for loved ones, ensuring deadlines are complete so we can avoid thinking about them, and becoming a little more focused on ourselves and our families. 

There is nothing wrong with that. In fact we deserve a break! Or certainly I will admit I need one!

But, as we prepare to celebrate another Christmas and hunker down it was strange to hear that yesterday the BBC launched a series of reports on the Syrian conflict to mark its third year - almost like a birthday? Oddly it seems like only yesterday that fifteen children in Deraa wrote anti-government graffiti and the subsequent violence started.

After three years of fighting, what can we infer from the situation? 

Well it is rather stale… in fact it is a stalemate.

That does not mean that fighting is not occurring but rather that rebels will take one area for it to be only retaken by government forces and vice versa.

Sustained firefights on the streets of Aleppo. Credit: James Lawer Duggan

Concerning the BBC report it concluded that the influence of external powers will be the deciding factor in this conflict; an observation that could be drawn from most, if not all, armed conflicts in this present age. Cheers for that BBC… we do indeed live in a globalised world so external powers are bound to take an interest and have an influence.

Conversely, in  studies on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) major scholars in democratisation such as Diamond, Linz and Lipset (1996) exclude the MENA  states from their studies as they “lack much democratic experience, and most appear to have little prospect of transition to even semi-democracy”. This lack of democracy simply makes this region even more interesting to external powers as it is so volatile. Volatility means vast amounts of money and where there is money there is bound to be trouble.

So, let us have a quick look at how have the external powers influenced Syria recently?

• They have given non-lethal aid to the Free Syrian Army (FSA) but due to the Islamic Front taking FSA bases in Bab al-Hawa the aid has stopped to this region.
• Aid for refugees and those suffering from the now crippling winter has been provided. Though it is risky for aid workers to complete their jobs.

This aid seems rather cautious and concerned with the people of Syria’s welfare. However, underneath this bubble of aid lies a more sinister trade, the arms trade. If external powers are not involved in this then… well we all know they are.

So what makes weapons profitable?

• Their durability.
• The ease with which actors can locate ammunition. Obviously finding ammunition for an AK47 is easier than another rarer or outdated rifle. 
• They are fungible and interchangeable.
• They retain their value
• Conflict seems to be a constant at this present moment so someone will always want to buy them

Read this article here for a more in-depth understanding and an overview of the arms trade.

Vast stockpiles of weapons in unstable states. See this article on the arms trade in Latin America.

Who is supporting who?

• Russia and Iran are supplying the Assad regime
• External powers such as America are not explicitly trading arms but are facilitating the transfer of arms from Libya to Syria rebels. The logic is that the more weapons fired at Assad means fewer weapons in the hands of militants in North Africa. Sound logic.

Furthermore, if you watch ‘Holidays in the Danger Zone - The Violent Coast: Liberia and Sierra Leone’ by Ben Anderson (I would recommend his documentaries) about sixteen minutes in he finds an RPG-7 provided by a British Arms Manufacturer despite the arms embargo on Liberia. Thus, as Western powers attempt to reduce conflict in developing states it is worth considering how they might be sustaining them or profiteering from them.

Nonetheless, they are playing a game which all foreign powers play from Pakistan to China to Russia and consequently for them to be involved, no matter how irresponsible, might help to prevent certain powers from dominating the international sphere.

I would argue that all should be aware of this practice but that preventing the arms trade presents a conundrum needing international cooperation. Calling for the West to stop trading arms could lead, however inhuman this appears, to worse atrocities. If both sides are armed then a realist state of deadlock may emerge. Though, if this is broken after sustained vertical proliferation, and with more weapons available, the conflict could be prolonged. It is a difficult situation.  

Therefore, as we spend Christmas buying lots of presents lets us take a minute to think about the way in which armed forces throughout the world are able to buy their ‘presents’ this Christmas. I urge you to consider the arguments, research the subject and form your own opinions on this important matter.

Resources used (if not already linked):

Diamond, L., Linz, J. J. and Lipset, S. M. (1995) Politics in Developing Countries: Comparing Experiences with Democracy. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.